New research suggests that the longer lifespans found in Blue Zones are not due to healthy behaviors but to birth certificate fraud and poor census management.
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There was research that debunked this debunker. There’s probably truth on both sides. Personally, there’s probably more truth to the blue zones than not.
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I think this is probably zone dependent. The really hilly areas with the mediterranean diet are probably more like a proper blue zone as they make people do a lot of exercise.
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I don’t disagree with the idea that there is merit to be found in the concept of longevity zones but have long thought that the claims were excessive and that the zones, taken as a whole, did not cohere. The most obvious commonalities for which the findings have merit center on the Mediterranean diet. Only one other diet among the hundreds has been subjected to such exhaustive research and resulted in universally positive, albeit not universally strong, findings.
Beyond the Med diet, I wonder what outcomes we would see if small social communities eating whole unadulterated foods were examined as dependent variables for longevity.
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I think it depends on which zone you are talking about. There has been evidence that the birth records of centenarians in Okinawa are suspect, for example. Similar charges have been levied against the elderly of mountainous Sardinia. But another blue zone is Loma Linda, California, which is a community largely composed of Seventh Day Adventists smack dabin the USA, where birth records are pretty standard, even from the early 20th Century. There is pretty good statistical data showing that residents of Loma Linda live on average 10 years longer than average Americans. The question then becomes is this causation or association? Is it the fact that a large percentage eat a plant-based diet, as the Blue Zone guy contends? Or is that an even larger percentage of Seventh Day Adventists doesn’t drink alcohol or smoke? (For people born 80-100 years ago, lung cancer was a major cause of death). How about the fact that they have a tight-knit social group, where exercise is a collective effort, and consequently don’t suffer the isolation of many elderly. And of course some would attribute their longevity to their faith, which is hard to quantify but does result in higher scores on the previous four components.
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All good points which show the complexity, maybe the impossibility on practical grounds, of controlling for the variances that leave these questions open.
A point on the Adventists. My work brought me in close contact with a group of Seventh Day Adventist university leaders 15 years ago. In addition to their healthy diet (most avoided meat entirely and also avoided desserts other than fruit), they demonstrated a remarkable degree of self-directed compliance with their standards. I was also left with the impression that the culture values working in low-key (i.e., low stress) ways. In a quiet way, these leaders also seemed proud of the fact that their belief-driven behavioral practices translate into a longer and healthier life. It would be difficult to identify a specifically unhealthy aspect of their culture and lifestyle.
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The Okinawan records are off mostly due to WW2 and unreported deaths. It’s not an intentional misreporting. The Japanese have very long lives. I have always noted that whenever I travel there that most people are elderly. The same can be said for Hong Kong where I live. It’s amazing how many great grandparents I meet. Not so in the USA.
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Read other perspectives on this too:
A response from Robert Young of the GRG Supercentenarian Research and Database Division
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To clarify, the statement in my initial post at the top of this discussion does not reflect my position. I pasted in the link from Schwarzenegger’s newsletter with the link to the publication.
However, the resultant discussion prompted me to think more about the Blue Zone construct, leading me to the conclusion that its implications are seriously overdrawn and would be so irrespective of the validity of any claims of systemic errors in the lifespan data. To me, these claims are a trivial issue.
Life- and healthspan are determined by a constellation of factors acting as causes and intermediate actors in a variety of ways the net effect of which is indeterminate, at least under current understanding. Those factors include genetics, activity, weight bearing activity, aerobic activity, sleep, stress, family and social connections, cultural factors, public health, mental health (including its genetic components) and – yes – diet. The forces of public health and antibiotics alone have contributed more to life- and healthspan than most other factors combined. I do not think there is any credible evidence suggesting that diet is at or even near the top of that list.
Many such life- and healthspan factors other than diet can account for “zones.” Longevity genes are not likely distributed uniformly across the globe and it is not unreasonable to postulate the existence of small clusters of them. Public sanitation and medical services vary widely across the globe. Cultures vary in their personal care habits. Different climates and topological conditions lead to different dietary habits but also different patterns of activity of various kinds. Some clusters are defined by cultural or religious beliefs. This is the short list.
I think the Blue Zone construct is a useful one because it aligns, at least in part, with scientific and observational evidence known to be associated with life- and healthspan. This alignment, along with a bit of old-fashioned longing for a simpler life, is what accounts for its popularity. On the other hand, I do not think these empirical zones would hold up under rigorous scientific scrutiny.
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Absolutely right on. As someone who’s father was the primary investigator on the Adventist Health Study until last year (from 1977 until 2023) I’m well familiar with the data - as I worked as a statistician/programmer on the study.
Yes, in the U.S., we have birth certificates and death certificates.
I do however think that Loma Linda is the only remaining blue zone - the westernization of habits in most has resulted in the expected effects.
@RobTuck The thing that is unique with blue zones is a group of people who have adherence to a given lifestyle. With Okinawa, the argument can be that genetics are a big component … with Loma Linda, not so - it is genetically diverse with plenty of Caucasians, Blacks, Asians, etc. So that is the most convincing region showing lifestyle choices result in different outcomes.
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The other thing I think could have a positive effect is the fact that all these so called blue zones are in coastal areas so the air pollution levels are probably way lower than average.
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How wonderful that your father was the investigator on this study which i have been following closely for a couple of decades. I guess since adhering to a diet or lifestyle was an article of religious faith, people were less likely to cheat or lie when they filled out the dietary logs. One thing that always fascinated me was that the vegetarians and lifelong non-smokers had much better outcomes for lung and colo-rectal cancers, but the data on coronary heart disease was a lot less convincing: among Adventist men was 34 percent lower; for Adventist women, it was two percent lower. 2 percent is a rounding error. Did your father have any conclusions on this? Were higher homocysteine levels among many vegetarians who lack B12 in their diet seen as a reason when we are often told that a vegetarian diet reduces LDL?
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I’ve been reasoning for a while about the blue zones. My conclusion is that the exceptional longevity is mainly caused by conservation of a very specific, random genetic pool favorable to longevity.
Sardinia, Ogliastra: very remote place in an isolated island, not far from the sea but not accessible from the coast, traditionally people were very untrusty of foreigners. Isolated communities. Inbred population= high conservation of the genetic pool. Of course, lifestyle enhanced the favourable genetic expression. Only place where males have same longevity than females, maybe more. Lifestyle is not exceptionally better than other rural areas in Italy.
Ikaria, Greece. An island. closed community. The sea is little accessible
Okinawa: an island
I have been studying the diet of Sardinian blue zone. Not really a Mediterranean diet, more of a sheperds’ diet. Close to the shepherds who live in my region. Little or no fish. Lots of dairy products (grass fed sheep and goats). Little meat, on sundays and holidays. Lots of vegetables from the home garden, plus cereals and beans. Lots of walking up and down the hills when herding sheep and goats. Lots of boredom…
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It’s an interesting point - there are some risks with being vegetarian or vegan IF you don’t recognize the items that need optimization. So B12 deficiency is an issue increasingly with carnivores, but is worse with plant based individuals, as is homocysteine with need to supplement B6/B9/B12 … possibly B3 and Betaine.
The sad thing is, the data that we’d really like with serum levels of homocysteine and omega 3 index is typically lacking, and it is so important as the probable causality, with increased rate of late neurocognitive decline and hemorrhagic stroke in vegans. I however think this is mitigated by optimization of Omega 3 index.
But yes, Dad is amazing, and has >300 publications, including in the mathematical literature with deriving new statistical techniques to look at epidemiological issues. As much as I have 4 board certifications, and he has 3, and has a PhD, MPH, Degree in statistics, and in music - plays pipe organ at a high level. Much smarter than me … and no loss of function, now age 78.
He’ll be hiking 15 km per day with my 19 year old daughter and her cousin in New Zealand in December for 3 days. I think that is how life is supposed to work out.
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I don’t think blue zones are dictated by genetics. When individuals leave a blue zone, such as Okinawa, and move to a non-blue zone like Hawaii, their lifespans become that of their new environment. I’d have to say it’s all lifestyle.
Okinawans are mostly farmers. They get out in the field and plant and grow their food. They especially love to grow and eat bitter melon which is great for cholesterol and longevity. Personally, I can’t stand the taste, but asians like it for it’s health benefits. Also they eat a lot of seafood that is unique to the area. Also, their favourite desert is the Okinawan sweet potato which is exquisite. I eat these regularly and they are a superfood.
Here’s an example of a common, unique Okinawan sea vegetable. This one’s not half bad.
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DeStrider, this issue is controversial, to tell the truth. In Sardinia so far no distinct gene has been isolated as responsible for the extreme longevity. But there is sure something genetically different since there is no generation gap. Males live as long as females. Or longer.
The hypothesis you cite would assign an overwhelming governing importance to epigenetic, as influenced by lifestyle. But, by mere considered observation and reasoning, that does not appear to be true in reality. That is, why other shepherd populations in Italy (there are so many) in similar conditions do not exhibit the same longevity? Are the Okinawans the only islanders in the world who eat bitter melon and algae and grow their garden?
Let’s take a look at this:
In Okinawa:
In the 2020 census, conducted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Okinawan men lived to an average age of 80.27 and women reached 87.44 .
In Japan overall, the statistics are better than Okinawa:
In 2021, the average life expectancy of women in Japan was approximately 87.6 years, whereas the life expectancy of men reached around 81.5 years. The average life expectancy of both men and women in Japan indicated a decrease for the first time since 2011.
In Hong Kong - Even better than Okinawa and Japan:
The life expectancies at birth for both sexes have increased from 67.8 years for males and 75.3 years for females in 1971 to 82.5# years and 87.9# years respectively in 2023.
I stand by my assertion that it’s the Asian lifestyle and not genetics. Although Hong Kongers and Japanese are petite, thin, move around a lot and eat a healthy diet. There aren’t many gardeners in Hong Kong though!
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the observations you cite are interesting, although what it would mean is that an adequate lifestyle is necessary for longevity/healthspan Necessary but not sufficient.
We may reason that the epigenetic factor is efficient only in the presence of an underlying favourable genetic makeup.
Of course, it’s all speculation and little evidence. Until the results of the blue zones will be duplicated in a controlled clinical trials, we cannot say for sure. And that’s practically impossible.
The adventists are probably a different case, it’s not an isolated pool of genes, on the contrary, so again it might be an indication of the power of epigenetics, but only in individuals with a favourable predisposition to longevity. I wonder how many are the outliers in longevity/healthspan in this population.